Lake Erie water levels dropped in August and whilestill higher than average, they're forecast to keep going down this month and for several more.
"Lake Erie fell almost an inch from July to August," said Lauren Schifferle, a civil engineer with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Buffalo District.
According to the Corps of Engineers' August 2021 Great Lakes Water Level Summary, Lake Erie water levels over the next six months are forecast to be 5 to 11 inches below 2020 levels and 7 to 19 inches below record-high levels. However, they areforecast to remain 15 to 20 inches above long-term averagelevels from September to February, according to the summary.
Still, that's some good news for Presque Isle State Park visitorsand local property owners,who watched asrecord high-water levelsin 2019 and 2020 interfered with recreation and caused damage.
"We're definitely seeing lower lake levels, which is a good thing," Matt Greene, operations manager at Presque Isle, said.
He said he's encouraged by the projections. Lower lake levels into October and November mean the beaches are better able to handle seasonal storms that can pound the peninsula's shoreline, Greene said.
From August:U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports on Lake Erie's high water levels. Here's what's ahead
Lower lake levels also mean less damage to park infrastructure and less effect on recreation there.
"It wasn't as bad as it was the past two years but it was still far from normal," Greene said about recentwater levels.
Lake Erie met or surpassed record high-water levels in February, March, April and May of 2020 and in June, July, August and September of 2019, according to information from the Army Corps of Engineers.
Greene said that this year, the park was able to open about 60% of its interior trails.
"We still had ones that were inundated with water," hesaid.
Schifferle said no record high levels were set for Lake Erie in 2021.
She said the Lake Erie water levelthis August was 9 inches below the 2019 record highfor the month of August of 574.21 feet. But the 573.46 feet monthly average level for August 2021 was still 20 inches above the long-term average for August of 571.78 feet. The record low of 569 feet was set in August 1934.
"We project it will follow its seasonal decline through fall and early winter," Schifferle said about Lake Erie.
She said it's a little too early to say if the lake'swater level will decrease as much as it typically does in the fall. In September, it is usually about 3.5 inches lower than August, she said.
Upstream lakes — Superior, Michigan and Huron — have also been decreasing from record levels in 2020 and 2019, Schifferle said. That's a good sign as she said they contribute about 80 percent of the water that enters Lake Erie.
Homeowners are noticing the drop
Randy Graham, who owns property along Lake Erie in North East Township, said he has noticed the Lake Erielevels going down somewhat. He checks the numbers onlineat least a couple times a month because he's worried about the potential for damage to his Riverside Drive house and boathouse.
But he's still happy that he had a steel and concrete seawall installed in 2020. Rising lake levels had taken down his old block seawall two years in a row, he said.
"They say the lake's going to recede through the end of the year, but who knows," Graham said.
He said he hopes it goes down but not too much. He rememberslow water levels in2013 that caused problems with getting his boat in and out of the North East Marina.
"If it goes back down to its historic level, that would be wonderful," Graham said.
From 2020:Lake Erie water levels threaten lakeshore, Presque Isle State Park
Great Lakes water levels do tend to vary by season, with more water entering the lakes in the spring while the summer and the fall tendto be drier. Cycles of lower levels and higher levels also canoccur over a number of years.
"Long-term, the lakes are going to be average again," Schifferlesaid.
They also will set record lows and record highs, she said, officials just don't know when.
She said we will see changing conditions on the lakes in the future because climate change is expected to bring more extreme weather patterns, although their exact effect on water levels isn't known.
At the peninsula:Winter ice, lower water levels helping to protect Presque Isle State Park's beaches from erosion
Schifferle said it's a good idea to be prepared for both higher and lower water levels on the Great Lakes.
Find more information aboutGreat Lakes water levels, including Lake Erie, atbit.ly/erielevels.
Contact Dana Massing at dmassing@timesnews.com. Follow her on Twitter @ETNmassing.
