How many SEC teams will make first 12-team College Football Playoff? Ranking the contenders (2024)

Analysis

Georgia has arguably the nation’s best QB in Carson Beck, a strong offensive line, a solid group of skill position players and the usual array of defensive talent, still coached by Kirby Smart.

So what could go wrong? The schedule is difficult with road trips against the next three highest-ranked SEC teams, which could take what seem to be small weaknesses and make them glaring. Is it the run defense, which struggled at times last year and still doesn’t have a player on the level of Jordan Davis or Jalen Carter from the recent national championship teams? Is it the pass rush or young secondary? Is it not having Brock Bowers to lean on in a pinch?

Still, while you wouldn’t want Georgia’s schedule, you’d want everything else: The roster, the coaching and the continuity, relative to other programs in the portal era.

Postseason chances

Based on what we know right now about this team, If Georgia can get in the Playoff, it’s chances to win it all are good. The trick will be getting in, and in that way, it appears to have two separate seasons: a trio of road games against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss and the other nine. That’s not to say the trip to Kentucky, the neutral site opener against Clemson and the home game against Tennessee are gimmes. But Georgia will be the favorite in those nine, while the other three on paper are close to toss-ups. Winning just one of those three games means probably having to go 9-0 in the others. Winning two of them gets some margin for error.

Whether Georgia could get in at 9-3 we can leave for another day. Because it’s also possible the Bulldogs go 12-0 or 11-1 and make this all academic.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Kirby Smart (Sam Navarro / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Carson Beck, QB. Has the size, arm and experience to be a Heisman contender.

Offensive player to watch: Dominic Lovett, WR. Georgia’s leading returning WR will inherit a lot of passes that went to Bowers.

Defensive player to watch: Malaki Starks, S. Potentially the best DB in the country.

X-factor: Mykel Williams, OLB. An intriguing talent who will play more on the edge this year.

Impact newcomer: Trevor Etienne, RB. The Florida transfer was brought in to provide experience in the backfield.

Analysis

Regression to the mean or more of the same? That question is at the center of Alabama’s 2024 team. The Nick Saban era is no more as Kalen DeBoer is leading the Tide, but the transition to has been smooth. Alabama’s roster retention and transfer portal additions in the spring window were strong, and the program has a top-three recruiting class for 2025. But how will that momentum translate to the field? And can fans’ expectations be recalibrated after a historic, near two decade run?

The Tide’s schedule is difficult: an early road game against Wisconsin, Georgia a few weeks later then later road games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. Other marquee home games include Missouri and Auburn. What’s working in Alabama’s favor is that despite a large exodus after Saban’s retirement, this is still one of the most talented rosters in the nation with an 88 percent blue chip rate (the percentage of players who were four- or five-star recruits), which is second only to Ohio State.

The Crimson Tide opened the season at No. 5 in the AP Top 25, their lowest preseason ranking since 2009.

Postseason chances

Taking the initial AP poll and converting it to the 12-team Playoff bracket, Alabama would be a No. 7 seed and would host a first-round playoff game. That feels like an accurate assessment of this team: It’s an SEC contender, but not favorite, and if the pieces align, it could make a deep Playoff run. The offense returns several key pieces, and while there are questions in the secondary, the defense is strong in the front seven, and specialists are elite.

Alabama’s current over-under wins projection, according to BetMGM, is 9.5. A 10-2 mark feels like a guarantee to get in, but 9-3 might be too close to call depending on which teams are in the win and loss column. It’s worth noting that in his three full FBS seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened season), DeBoer is averaging 11.3 wins per season.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Kalen DeBoer (Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Jalen Milroe, QB. The highest-returning 2023 Heisman vote-getter is the key to Alabama’s offense.

Offensive players to watch: Justice Haynes/Jam Miller, RBs. This position is widely considered the best position on the team.

Defensive player to watch: Domani Jackson, SB. Jackson, a USC transfer, has been the leader since he arrived in January.

X-factor: Tim Keenan III, DL. Keenan is the leader of a group that has been the most impressive during the preseason.

Impact newcomer: Parker Brailsford, C. Alabama’s snapping issues should be rectified.

Analysis

Texas is nationally relevant again after a conference championship and Playoff berth last season. Steve Sarkisian enters his fourth year with the same offensive, defensive and special teams coordinators he hired in 2021, a third-year starter at QB, four of five starters back on the offensive line and a talented defense. There’s speed, size and depth across the board. As the Longhorns make their SEC debut, they look equipped for the challenge.

But there are questions. Replacing the elite 2023 DT duo of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy is a tall task. The entire offensive skill position group is new. Texas lost two RBs to season-ending injuries in practice, including starter CJ Baxter. And can QB Quinn Ewers progress from good to elite?

Texas will be tested. The Longhorns travel to Michigan in Week 2, get Oklahoma and Georgia in consecutive weeks in October and conclude the season rekindling a heated rivalry at Texas A&M. Sarkisian’s team is ranked in the top five because the roster talent, through his recruiting and portal management, is stellar. He isn’t shying away from expectations, calling this the deepest and most talented team he has had.

Postseason chances

Sarkisian’s goal is to win the SEC. Doing so in the first iteration of the 16-team era will be tough because of how deep the league is, but the Longhorns are on the higher end of the talent spectrum, so they’re legit contenders. Getting Georgia at home is a plus and a chance for Texas to ideally position itself for a run at the conference crown.

Regardless, a Playoff berth is a reasonable expectation and something the Longhorns should accomplish, whether or not they win the SEC. Not making the Playoff would be a significant disappointment.

The early road trip to Michigan will be a test. Having Oklahoma and Georgia back-to-back is a tough midseason stretch. And rivalry games on the road against Arkansas and Texas A&M will be intriguing. This is definitely a step up from Texas’ 2023 slate.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Steve Sarkisian (Stephen Lew / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Quinn Ewers, QB. Ewers enters his third year as the starter and is a Heisman favorite.

Offensive player to watch: Kelvin Banks, OT. The left tackle has started every game since he arrived two years ago.

Defensive player to watch: Jahdae Barron, DB. Barron can play every position in the secondary and has a knack for finding the ball.

X-factor: Alfred Collins, DL. The Longhorns’ hopes up front start with a big year from Collins, a fifth-year senior.

Impact newcomer: Trey Moore, Edge. The UTSA transfer should add juice to Texas’ pass rush.

Analysis

Ole Miss deserves credit: It sees its chance and is taking it. The Rebels have an ambitious coach, an ambitious NIL collective and an administration and fan base that saw last year’s 11-2 season and decided to go for more.

The result was a transfer portal haul that was the best in the nation, at least on paper, joining a group that already was returning 12 starters, including the quarterback. This could be one of the best teams in the country.

So why are the Rebels not in the above tier of national title contenders? It’s a fair point that could go either way, and in this case, the top tier has three teams that all made the four-team Playoff within the past two years. Ole Miss has been good but hasn’t been able to break through, as it has lost three straight to Alabama and was uncompetitive at Georgia last year.

Lane Kiffin said that Georgia game was a wake-up call about what was needed to get to the top tier, and then came the offseason spending spree. Now the Rebels hope they have the line play and the depth to make the Playoff and make a deep run.

Postseason chances

The schedule could help or hurt: There’s no Alabama, Texas, Missouri or Tennessee. The hardest two games on paper are at LSU and home against Georgia. That makes 10 wins or more look very doable, but does it make 11-1 necessary to make the field?

It’s hard to say without knowing the overall strength of the contenders. The hopeful part for Ole Miss is last year, it took care of business except for its two toughest games. That was a maturation for the program that will lead to big things if it continues this year.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Lane Kiffin (Brett Davis / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Jaxson Dart, QB. A definite Heisman preseason favorite.

Offensive player to watch: Tre Harris, WR. Harris led the Rebels with 985 receiving yards last year and has more help this year.

Defensive player to watch: Jared Ivey, DE. Ivey had nine sacks and 84 tackles the past two seasons.

X-factor: Chris Paul Jr., LB. Paul could solidify the middle of the defense.

Impact newcomer: Walter Nolen, DL. The former five-star recruit instantly improves the defensive line.

Analysis

Missouri was a meteor last season, going 11-2 after not winning more than six games between 2019-22. And given the number of key players coming back, the vibes entering this season are strong. So it’s natural to wonder if Mizzou can keep this up.

One reason to believe last season wasn’t a mirage: the eye test as the season went on. In mid-November, Missouri gave Georgia one of its toughest games of the regular season. Georgia people came away from that game believing the Tigers were legitimate.

Another reason to buy in: the schedule. There’s no Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss or LSU. The only game that on paper right now Missouri would be the underdog in would be at Alabama.

It’s still fair to wonder if Missouri will be like Tennessee last year, slightly slipping after its breakthrough season. The difference is Missouri returns its starting QB, Brady Cook, and arguably the best skill-position player in the country, WR Luther Burden. The Tigers did lose one of the top RBs in Cody Schrader, and its defensive coordinator was poached by LSU. But coach Eli Drinkwitz made some strategic portal additions, and the passing game is good enough to overcome weaknesses elsewhere.

Postseason chances

The Playoff is a realistic goal, although given the schedule, there isn’t much margin for error. Finishing 10-2 may not be good enough to get Missouri in, unless the field proves really weak and the Tigers’ opponents prove better than expected.

It may be until October before we begin to find out: The first four games are all at home against heavy underdogs, but then Missouri goes to Texas A&M on Oct. 5. Win that game, and the Playoff hype can really get going.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Eli Drinkwitz (Jerome Miron / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Luther Burden, WR. His main obstacle to a great season is being double-teamed, but he has plenty of help.

Offensive player to watch: Brady Cook, QB. Cook is an underrated runner, amassing 319 rushing yards last year.

Defensive player to watch: Johnny Walker, DE. The team’s top returning player in sacks (five) and TFLs (9.5).

X-factor: Zion Young, DE. The transfer from Michigan State will be counted on up front.

Impact newcomers: Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll, RBs. Two transfer portal additions who will be key pieces.

Analysis

If you told LSU fans in 2022 that Brian Kelly’s first two seasons would include 20 wins, an SEC West title and a Heisman winner, they probably would take it. Yet it feels like the Tigers have underachieved to a degree, particularly last season when a top flight offense with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and first-rounders Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. was wasted by disastrous defense. LSU won 10 games but had only one ranked win.

Year 3 for Kelly kicks off with a bang: a neutral site game against USC, another team with a potent offense looking for a defensive identity. The schedule sets up favorably as all four of LSU’s toughest games are either at a neutral site (USC) or at home (Alabama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma). Furthermore, LSU will have a bye week before both Alabama and Ole Miss.

What LSU didn't supplement roster-wise on defense was done via a revamped coaching staff, including coordinator Blake Baker (formerly Missouri DC) and DL coach Bo Davis (formerly DL coach at Texas). Offensively, there’s optimism in QB Garrett Nussmeier, WR Kyren Lacy and an elite offensive line.

Postseason chances

Talent wise there’s no question that LSU’s a Playoff team, but how much can the new defensive staff elevate that group? The cleanest scenario for LSU is splitting games against Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and USC and winning its other eight games for a 10-2 record. If that split turns into 1-3 or there’s another loss elsewhere, it could be a stressful selection Sunday.

It would be unrealistic for LSU’s offense to keep pace with last season’s, but that’s not the Tigers' need: Complementary football is the goal. Last year’s team finished No. 1 in total offense and No. 108 in total defense. A top-15 (or so) offense with a top-50/75 defense feels like the sweet spot.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Brian Kelly (Stephen Lew / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Garrett Nussmeier, QB. The backup last year has shown flashes. Now he’s the starter.

Offensive players to watch: Will Campbell/Emery Jones, OTs. LSU’s offensive line is the key to offensive success.

Defensive player to watch: Harold Perkins, LB. He’s an undisputed elite talent in college football.

X-factor: Kaleb Jackson, RB. LSU’s RBs need to move to the forefront of the offense.

Impact newcomer: Gio Paez, DL. The Wisconsin transfer brings much-needed experience.

Analysis

The 2023 season didn’t bring the same peak moments that 2022 did, but a nine-win season and 19 wins during the past two years show that the Volunteers are trending upward. This season is one of the most anticipated in some time as the Nico Iamaleava era is here, and an expanded Playoff makes Tennessee an attractive contender.

Josh Heupel is entering the 2024 season with all three coordinators having served on his original staff; that level of continuity is big in today’s game. Tennessee’s returning production (52 percent) is in the bottom half nationally, but where that production is concentrated is in the right places: WR, where Tennessee might be deeper than it has been since Heupel’s arrival, three returning starters on the offensive line and several contributors on the defensive front. Where Tennessee’s biggest questions lie are in the back seven. Of the nine Volunteers LBs/DBs who played 300 snaps last year, only one returned.

Tennessee will be one of the more interesting teams to watch. The Volunteers are on a recruiting rampage, a sign of things to come, and a third straight strong season further validates the Heupel regime.

Postseason chances

Top to bottom, the Vols have one of the most favorable schedules in the SEC: The combined opponent record from 2023 is 78-69, the second worst in the conference. That said, Tennessee will need to make the most of its opportunities against the marquee opponents.

Week 2 brings excitement: a neutral site game against NC State, another potential darkhorse Playoff team, then notable games at Oklahoma in Week 4, an October home game against Alabama and a November road trip to Georgia. The pathway for a Tennessee Playoff berth is pretty clear: Iamaleava lives up to the hype, the defensive front controls the line of scrimmage and Tennessee beats either Alabama or Georgia to solidify its spot. But a 10-2 record with losses to Alabama and Georgia could still be enough depending onthe Vols’ opponents being better than expected.

What would be a successful season?

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Coach Josh Heupel (Randy Sartin / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: James Pearce, DE.Pearce can be a game-wrecking force.

Offensive player to watch: Nico Iamaleava, QB. Expectations are high, but there’s no denying the talent.

Defensive player to watch: Keenan Pili, LB. The seventh-year player is back after missing the 2023 season.

X-factor: Dylan Sampson, RB. Sampson, who averaged 7.9 yards per touch last year, is a breakout candidate.

Impact newcomer: Chris Brazzell II, WR. The Tulane transfer should be an instant impact player.

Analysis

Year 3 of the Brent Venables era brings a new challenge: the SEC. Oklahoma long ruled the Big 12, winning half of the league titles (14 of 28). The SEC is a different beast, but Venables has been stocking the roster in high school recruiting and via the transfer portal to prepare.

This year’s Sooners have several key players returning, but success likely will be defined by a key crop of newcomers. OU had to replace all five starters from last year’s offensive line, so the Sooners were aggressive landing linemen in the portal. The defensive line was also a point of focus, and how well the Sooners did in the portal will determine how the team fares on the line of scrimmage in its new league. The back end of the defense is loaded, with linebacker Danny Stutsman, safety Billy Bowman Jr. and cornerback Woodi Washington among the key returnees.

All eyes are on quarterback Jackson Arnold. Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, and it’s Arnold’s show now. There are high hopes for the former five-star recruit from Texas. Former Purdue receiver Deion Burks looks like one of the nation’s most impactful transfer additions.

Oklahoma is one of the biggest mysteries in the SEC in 2024. The team has the talent to be a contender. But how will the Sooners adjust to their new digs and the tough schedule that awaits?

Postseason chances

This OU roster in the Big 12 would probably be a title favorite. In the SEC, it’s a tougher climb.

The nonconference slate is manageable, but when SEC play begins on Sept. 21 is when the fun begins, as Tennessee visits Norman. The Sooners have road games against No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 11 Missouri, host No. 5 Alabama and travel to LSU. And, of course, there’s the Red River rivalry on Oct. 12 against No. 4 Texas.

Remember, the Sooners beat Texas last year, and the Longhorns went on to the Playoff. This is a team that won 10 games and added several key pieces to the roster. Venables, who won national titles as an assistant at Clemson, knows what an elite team looks like. So the potential to be in the mix at season’s end is there. But the range of outcomes feels wide. If the Sooners stumble somewhere in September or October, could it snowball?

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Brent Venables (Nathan J. Fish / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Danny Stutsman, LB. The senior is an All-America candidate and the heart and soul of the defense.

Offensive player to watch: Jackson Arnold, QB. The former five-star recruit is ready to take the reins.

Defensive player to watch: Billy Bowman, DB. The senior is a ball hawk — six interceptions, including three pick sixes, last year.

X-factor: Deion Burks, WR. The Purdue transfer is expected to provide a huge boost to the passing attack.

Impact newcomer: Damonic Williams, DL.The TCU transfer brings elite strength to the defensive front.

Analysis

The 2023 Tigers were so close, yet so far away. No one played Alabama and Georgia closer during the regular season, but in both home games, Auburn let the win slip away. And a 31-10 home loss to New Mexico State illustrated just how far Auburn must go to find the needed consistency to win at a high level. A 6-7 debut for Hugh Freeze could’ve seen bigger highs, but the moments were there. What will 2024 have in store?

We know there will be changes. For the seventh time in eight years, Auburn has a new offensive coordinator. This time it’s Derrick Nix, a former Freeze assistant at Ole Miss who will help Freeze, who’s now the play caller, get the offense on track. On defense, a veteran combination of DJ Durkin and Charles Kelly took over a unit that was 48th nationally.

There has been an influx of talent. Auburn signed a top-10 recruiting class for the first time since the 2020 cycle, and a few freshmen are expected to make early contributions, mainly WRs Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson.

Postseason chances

History tells us that a few unexpected teams will be in the Playoff mix, but a more realistic forecast for Auburn is a winning record, a bowl bid and a bowl win (the Tigers have just one bowl win since 2015).

The Tigers’ schedule is interesting: They won’t leave their home stadium for the first month of the season with five consecutive home games to start the year: Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas and Oklahoma. But when Auburn does go on the road, it’ll be a daunting task: Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky and Missouri.

The key to postseason play is clear: an improved offense with Freeze running the show and an experienced QB, sparked by a fast start in September.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Hugh Freeze (Christopher Hanewinckel / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Jarquez Hunter, RB. Arguably the SEC’s top back.

Offensive player to watch: Payton Thorne, QB. Freeze showed confidence in Thorne by not bringing in a transfer

Defensive player to watch: Keionte Scott, CB. The only returning starter in the secondary.

X-factor: Eugene Asante, LB. Auburn needs an All-SEC campaign from him this fall.

Impact newcomer: Cam Coleman, WR. Coleman is the highest-rated WR Freeze has ever signed.

Analysis

The Aggies massively underachieved in the final two seasons of the Jimbo Fisher era, and that’s one of the main reasons he’s gone and Mike Elko is now in charge. Elko, who spent four years as A&M’s defensive coordinator under Fisher before two successful years turning Duke around, has brought a disciplined mentality to Aggieland.

Even though the Aggies lost a lot of talent in the winter portal window, Elko and his staff did a superb job of restocking the roster. And there’s still some high-end talent hanging around, from quarterback Conner Weigman to defensive lineman Shemar Turner. The defensive line, with its returning talent and the additions of transfers Nic Scourton and Cashius Howell, should be nasty. This should still be one of the 10 most-talented teams in the country.

But there are questions. Will the offensive line — which has been dreadful in recent years — raise its level? Can Weigman — who has just nine games of college experience — stay healthy? How will the loss of sophom*ore Rueben Owens impact the running backs?

The Aggies also have an entirely new on-field staff. Elko snagging former Kansas State coordinator Collin Klein to run the offense should be intriguing.

Postseason chances

This is a definite bowl team, but that’s not why A&M made a change. The Aggies want to contend for SEC titles and make the Playoff. Both seem like long shots right now. But when considering the roster talent, the schedule and how quickly Elko turned around Duke, is an at-large Playoff berth truly a pipe dream?

The schedule isn’t daunting. There’s no Alabama, Georgia or Ole Miss. The four ranked teams the Aggies play — Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU and Texas — all travel to Kyle Field. A road trip to Florida in Week 3 could be tricky, and the final road game at Auburn, which is a week before the A&M hosts Texas, stands out as a potential road block.

If A&M beats Notre Dame to open the season, suddenly, a lot more than 8-4 seems possible. But the Aggies went 12-13 in the last two seasons, so the burden of proof is on them.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Mike Elko (Brett Patzke / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Shemar Turner, DL.The versatile Turner bypassed the NFL Draft and should be one of the best D-linemen in the country.

Offensive player to watch: Conner Weigman, QB.Weigman oozes potential but missed two-thirds of last season with an injury. If he’s healthy, he could be a star.

Defensive player to watch: Taurean York, LB.York surprised as a true freshman starter and emerged as a leader.

X-factor: Noah Thomas, WR.A&M needs someone to step up in the No. 1 WR role, and it could be Thomas.

Impact newcomer: Nic Scourton, DL. One of the top transfers of the offseason, he should be a force up front.

Analysis

Kentucky is the team few are talking about, but maybe we should be. The reason we don’t talk more about the Wildcats: They’re boring. OK that’s harsh, but Mark Stoops always has a solid, respectable team that never breaks through: Kentucky is the only former SEC East team that hasn’t gotten at least one win over Kirby Smart.

So when we hear that Stoops may have another solid team, it’s understandable to yawn and say: Sure, but good luck in the new SEC, where you don’t have the bottom of the SEC East to beat up on anymore.

And yet we repeat: Stoops appears to have another solid team. The defense returns a lot of good starters, including elite DT Deone Walker. The offense is hoping to build around QB Brock Vandagriff, a former Georgia five-star recruit who will have some good weapons around him. There is a new offensive coordinator, Bush Hamdan, who guided Boise State’s second-ranked Mountain West offense last year.

If it were anybody other than Kentucky, this would be a much-discussed sleeper candidate. But because it’s Kentucky, it’s moving under the radar, perhaps fairly: If a Stoops team is going to be a true SEC contender, we need to see it happen before buying in.

Postseason chances

A bowl looks assured, with four home nonconference games (Louisville being the only Power 4) and home games against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Auburn, plus a trip to Florida. There should be six wins among those eight.

But the other four are difficult: Georgia goes to Lexington, and there are trips to Ole Miss, Texas and Tennessee. If it all comes together for the Wildcats, they could push for Playoff contention. But a lot has to come together.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Mark Stoops (Jordan Prather / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Deone Walker, DT. A potential first-round pick and the star of the defense.

Offensive player to watch: Brock Vandagriff, QB. There’s no reason he can’t be a solid SEC QB whose dual-threat ability extends drives.

Defensive player to watch: Maxwell Hairston, CB. A playmaker (five INTs) who broke out last year.

X-factor: Barion Brown, WR-KR. Brown has 1,167 career receiving yards, 145 rushing yards and four kickoff return TDs.

Impact newcomer: Jamon Dumas-Johnson, ILB. If he’s at his 2022 form (at UGA), Kentucky’s defense gets even saltier.

Analysis

Shane Beamer acknowledges that the vibes around his program are different from last year: “We were here last year (at SEC media days) and somewhat of a feel-good story, and some of you guys were picking us to be a dark horse team in the SEC. (Then) we went 5-7.”

It doesn’t help that the best player, QB Spencer Rattler, who made plays for himself behind a struggling offensive line, is now in the NFL. But given that this is the preseason and hope springs eternal, the Gameco*cks do have hope.

On offense, they brought in one of the best transfers in the SEC. And the QB, LaNorris Sellers, has upside despite lacking experience.

The defense, meanwhile, has some good players, enough to improve from ninth in the SEC last year in scoring defense and yards per play. The Gameco*cks just have to get better at tackling, which was a glaring issue.

Postseason chances

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Shane Beamer (Jeff Blake / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Nick Emmanwori, S. Emmanwori has first round-type draft ability.

Offensive player to watch: LaNorris Sellers, QB. The redshirt freshman has dynamic skills.

Defensive player to watch: Kyle Kennard, DE. Kennard should help the Gameco*cks’ pass rush.

X-factor: Nyck Harbor, WR. Harbor stands to have a bigger role than last year, when he only had 12 catches for 195 yards.

Impact newcomer: Rocket Sanders, RB. Can he return to 2022 form, and can the line open holes?

Analysis

Billy Napier has tried to build Florida back via the way he knows, the Nick Saban/Kirby Smart model of recruiting and staffing, and this past year, he did sign two of the nation’s top recruits. But his short tenure has been marred by silly mistakes on the field, the Jaden Rashada saga and losing high-profile players to the transfer portal.

Can this be the year Napier reverses the vibes with the good recruiting getting more notice and the on-field product looking competent? It’s an open question.

The offense is solid at the skill positions, including with veteran QB Graham Mertz. The question is the offensive line. The defense was bad last year before losing edge rusher Princely Umanmielen to Ole Miss. But there’s hope that stability will come from some additions, such as S Asa Turner, who transferred from Washington.

The simplistic formula for the Gators: The defense needs to go from below-average to average, and the offense from average to above average. Then the special teams just need to stop messing up.

Postseason chances

The better question may be how well the Gators play in The Swamp? The narrative has been that Florida’s schedule is tough, but all seven home games are winnable: No. 19 Miami in the opener, Samford, No. 20 Texas A&M, UCF, Kentucky, No. 13 LSU and maybe even No. 6 Ole Miss. There’s also a road trip to Mississippi State.

This isn’t to say there are no wins among the rest, including at No. 15 Tennessee or at No. 10 Florida State. (Texas and Georgia, well, walk before you run.) But out of those seven home games and Mississippi State, an improved Florida team has a decent shot at finding six wins.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Billy Napier (Denny Medley / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Graham Mertz, QB. He led SEC starters in completion percentage and threw the fewest INTs.

Offensive player to watch: Eugene Wilson, WR. Wilson steps into the main role with Ricky Pearsall in the NFL.

Defensive player to watch: Jason Marshall Jr., CB. A good defender who can lock down his side of the field.

X-factor: LJ McCray, DL. McCray has the ability to immediately help, especially on rush defense.

Impact newcomer: Asa Turner, S. Turner, who had two picks in 2022 could help after transferring from Washington.

Analysis

The fifth season of the Sam Pittman era is critical. After consecutive winning seasons, including a 9-4 peak in 2021, the pressure is on after a 4-8 showing last year. Pittman is 23-25 in four seasons, but athletic director Hunter Yurachek opted to bring Pittman back for 2024.

Pittman is on his third offensive coordinator, bringing former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino back to Fayetteville to call the offense. Petrino’s past success at Arkansas — he went 34-17 in four seasons — leads to optimism, despite his messy exit more than a decade ago. But his uneven track record since then provides at least some uncertainty.

For the offense to turn around, the offensive line must improve. Arkansas had the second-worst sack rate in the SEC last season and was last in average rushing yards before first contact, according to TruMedia. Pittman brought in Baylor offensive line coach Eric Mateos in hopes of elevating the group. Arkansas also added four linemen in the portal.

If the Razorbacks are to rise in 2024, they must finish games. They lost five by a touchdown or less a year ago. “We have got to figure that out,” Pittman said in July. “We feel like we're well on our way to getting that accomplished.”

Postseason chances

It will be an uphill climb, thanks in large part to the Razorbacks’ tough schedule. They have seven preseason Top-25 teams on the slate, starting with a road trip to No. 17 Oklahoma State in Week 2.

The toughest stretch comes in the middle, when Arkansas plays five ranked teams in six games, including three in a row — No. 20 Texas A&M, No. 15 Tennessee and No. 13 LSU. To start November, the Hogs host No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 4 Texas on consecutive weeks then close out the regular season at No. 11 Mizzou.

“That's how it is in the SEC,” Pittman said. “They also have to play the Arkansas Razorbacks.”

Can Arkansas scratch out six wins and get to a bowl? It wi’ll have to upset at least one of those ranked teams to do so.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Sam Pittman (Nelson Chenault / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Landon Jackson, DL. The first-team All-SEC pick is menace and will wreak havoc on opposing offenses.

Offensive player to watch: Andrew Armstrong, WR. The sixth-year senior should be one of the top receivers in the SEC.

Defensive player to watch: Jaylon Braxton, CB. The SEC All-Freshman pick should be in store for an even bigger 2024.

X-factor: Taylen Green, QB. The Boise State transfer was hand-picked by Petrino to run the offense.

Impact newcomer: Anton Juncaj, DE. The first-team FCS All-American adds juice to Arkansas’ pass rush.

Analysis

No team in college football has dealt with the turbulence that Mississippi State has experienced the past few seasons. Mike Leach’s death at the end of 2022, a significant step back under Zach Arnett in 2023 and now Jeff Lebby in 2024, a third head coach in three years. More than anything, the Bulldogs need stability.

Lebby, who is doubling as the offensive coordinator, runs an up-tempo style that re-aligns closer with what Leach ran and had some success with in Starkville. But it’s going to be an uphill battle; Mississippi State didn’t have one representative on the All-SEC preseason team. With 25 transfer portal exits, including mainstays like QB Will Rogers, RB Woody Marks, and 44 additions, it’s essentially a new team. And that fresh start might be exactly what Mississippi State needs.

Postseason chances

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Jeff Lebby (Brett Patzke / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Blake Shapen, QB. Shapen brings experience to lead Lebby’s offense.

Offensive player to watch: Kelly Akharaiyi, WR. Look for Lebby to scheme him up.

Defensive player to watch: JP Purvis, LB. Purvis needs a big year to help mitigate the defensive questions.

X-factor: Isaac Smith, DB. The former four-star recruit will be a big part of the secondary as a starting safety.

Impact newcomer: Ethan Miner, OL. A transfer center who has more than 30 career starts and was an All-AAC selection last year.

Analysis

Vanderbilt either can feel sorry for itself, the team that uncovers good prospects only to lose them, as happened yet again this offseason. Or it can do something different to try and be competitive in this bigger and harder SEC.

Clark Lea showed hints of realizing that after last season, when he brought in Tim Beck as his offensive coordinator, after running a more conventional offense since getting to Vanderbilt in 2021. Beck came from New Mexico State, where he ran the spread but had QB Diego Pavia rush for nearly 1,000 yards, and Pavia went with him to Vanderbilt. The goal is to at least be a headache for SEC defenses.

Lea, who was Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator before taking over at Vanderbilt, is taking over the defensive play-calling. After three lackluster seasons (to be nice), Lea realizes he needs to show something this season. But does he have the players to do that?

Postseason chances

Not great. There’s only one gimme (Alcorn State), while Ball State and Georgia State (the latter on the road) aren’t assured. The other nonconference game is the season opener against Virginia Tech in Nashville, which should tell a lot: A win would be great, but at least being competitive would provide hope.

But the SEC schedule is daunting: Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina go to Nashville. The road trips are Missouri, Kentucky, Auburn and LSU.

What would be a successful season?

Photo:

Coach Clark Lea (Christopher Hanewinckel / USA Today)

Austin Mock's odds

Key players

MVP: Diego Pavia, QB. The senior knows Beck’s system, starting in it for the better part of two seasons.

Offensive player to watch: Sedrick Alexander, RB. The sophom*ore led Vanderbilt with only 327 rushing yards last year.

Defensive player to watch: Langston Patterson, LB. The junior was the team’s leading tackler last year.

X-factor: Junior Sherrill, WR. With the top three WRs transferring out of the program, Sherrill will have a bigger role.

Impact newcomer: Eli Stowers, TE. Stowers could be a versatile piece in the offense.